Apple Forecasts Slower Services Growth as AI Costs Rise

Apple warned of slower services growth in the holiday quarter as it absorbs Siri AI costs, forecasting 8%‑9% growth and a 45%‑46% gross margin.

By NewsClearly Newsroom

· 4 min read

Apple Forecasts Slower Services Growth as AI Costs Rise
Photo: Matthew T Rader / CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons

Based on reporting by Milan Jovicic (apfelpatient.com) and Piyush Shukla (The Economic Times).

What Apple announced

Apple said its services segment will grow more slowly in the holiday quarter, as the company absorbs the cloud‑computing costs of its new Siri AI and plans to charge for expanded AI access. The guidance was delivered on the earnings call for the September quarter, the company’s best‑performing quarter ever.

Key numbers from the September quarter

  • Services revenue rose 10% to $31.6 billion.
  • iPhone sales increased 17% to $57.6 billion.
  • Mac revenue jumped 24% to $10.8 billion.
  • iPad revenue fell 10% to $6.2 billion.
  • Wearables, Home and Accessories declined 8% to $8.3 billion.
  • Apple forecast services growth of 8%‑9% for the December quarter.
  • Overall revenue growth for the December quarter is projected at 7%‑10% with gross margins of 45%‑46%.
  • Shares slipped about 4% in after‑hours trading after the call.

Why the slower services growth matters

Services have become Apple’s second‑largest revenue stream, and investors have come to expect double‑digit expansion. CFO Kevan Parekh said the slowdown is driven mainly by third‑party licensing pressure and foreign‑exchange effects, plus the new expense of running Siri’s server‑side AI models. The company also hinted at future “usage limits” on AI‑heavy features such as intelligent photo editing, with the option for users to purchase extra capacity.

Because services contribute a high‑margin component to Apple’s earnings, any drag can weigh on the overall gross‑margin outlook. Apple’s December‑quarter guidance of 45%‑46% gross margin reflects the added AI cost pressure and memory‑chip price increases that are already eroding margins in hardware.

What this means for investors and consumers

For investors, the guidance signals that Apple’s growth engine may be tempering as it invests in AI infrastructure. The company’s valuation already reflects high expectations—trading around $341 per share on the day of the call—so a slower‑than‑expected services pace could tighten the price‑to‑earnings multiple. At the same time, the firm’s cash‑rich balance sheet and record iPhone revenue provide a cushion.

Consumers should expect that some AI‑driven features, like Siri‑based photo enhancements or advanced iCloud processing, may become “pay‑for‑more” services in the future. Apple has not disclosed pricing or a launch date, but the hint of tiered access suggests a shift from the current all‑included model.

For those who rely on Apple Pay, the launch in India with Axis Bank expands the service to more than 90 markets, and the partnership with American Airlines shows continued growth in contactless payments.

What to watch next

Analysts will focus on the December‑quarter earnings release for several clues:

  1. Whether Apple confirms the 8%‑9% services growth range and how much of the AI cost is reflected in the services cost of sales.
  2. The pricing and rollout timeline for expanded AI access, which could create a new revenue stream.
  3. Supply‑chain updates on the foldable iPhone Duo, whose limited availability may affect holiday‑quarter iPhone revenue.
  4. Memory‑chip price trends, as higher component costs are already cutting into hardware margins.
  5. Any revision to gross‑margin guidance, especially if AI expenses prove larger than anticipated.

Investors who want to understand the details of Apple’s earnings call can read How to Read an Earnings Report: A Beginner's Guide for a quick primer on the key metrics.

Sources